The Patel Test 🏏

Harsha Bhogle can talk about swing bowling like no one else.

The wrist, the grip, overcast skies, how the seam behaves off a green patch. It’s scholarly. And spot on.

But when my team’s defending a total, I’m not calling Harsha. I’m handing the ball to Munaf Patel.

Because Harsha doesn’t bowl. Munaf does.

That’s exactly how I think about investing.

You’ll find people—on TV, at conferences, even in top funds—who can break down macro trends, business models, policy tailwinds, and India’s demographic dividend with flair. It sounds razor sharp.

But when it comes to allocating real money, I want to know: Can they bowl?

🎯 The Patel Test

I ask just three questions:

1. What’s their stated strategy?
2. Do they follow it consistently?
3. What’s the performance like?

In fact, I usually start with #3.

Because if you can’t outperform the benchmark over time net of fees, why should I care how elegantly you talk about megatrends?

I’m here to make alpha, not attend a consulting seminar.

📊 But Alpha Is Hard

And it’s getting harder.

• 87% of large-cap Indian equity funds underperformed the Nifty 100 over the past 5 years (SPIVA 2023).
• In the US, 94% underperformed the S&P 500 over 10 years.
• Even among outperformers, most fall back to the mean.

This is not to chase top-quartile short-term stars. Luck and risk can skew numbers.

But if your 3–5 year performance doesn’t justify a deeper look, I move on.

🤹🏽‍♂️ Talk is Cheap. Execution Isn’t.

Markets don’t reward elegance. They reward execution.

I’ve seen some of the best talkers lag index funds. And some of the most underwhelming speakers deliver solid compounding.

That’s because investing is about action, not articulation. Craft, not commentary.

So yes, Harsha can explain why reverse swing works. But Munaf has done it under pressure, over spells, over years.

And that’s the point. As allocators, we have limited attention and even more limited capital.

🧠 Nuance Follows Numbers

Yes, performance needs context. Contrarian calls, sector bets, timing — all that matters.

But nuance without results is just noise.

So, when I’m sizing someone up — be it a fund manager, an advisor, or a newsletter guru — I start with The Patel Test.

Because the data’s in: most don’t beat the market.

And I’m not here for gyaan. I’m here for the guy who can bowl.